With the approach of the Spring Festival, the steel market has gradually begun to go to the “rest market” stage. Therefore, the market focus at this stage is still the growth rate and magnitude of inventory. After the centralized purchase before the Spring Festival, market transactions will obviously drop. Regardless of the steel mill’s in-plant inventory or social inventory, there will be a significant rise, which will bring great pressure to the market operation. In the consolidation phase after the market price has fallen, steel mill production will also actively stabilize. Under the external influence of environmental protection and other external influences, steel plant output in some regions will decline, and the output of some steel products such as construction will decline even more. In theory, there is a mitigating effect of supply and demand, but because it is a seasonal off-season, social inventory is still an upward trend, and this trend of rising inventory will be more obvious near the Spring Festival, which will give the steel market around the Spring Festival The impact of price fluctuations will also bring some pressure to the market after the Spring Festival. Construction steel stocks across the country continued to increase. The stock of wire rods in 40 major domestic markets monitored by the Steel House website is 1.33 million tons, which is an increase of 82,200 tons weekly and an increase of 6.61%. The rebar inventory was 4.13 million tons, an increase of 370,000 tons week-on-month and an increase of 9.87%. Among them, the Shanghai market wire rod inventory was 49,000 tons, a decrease of 0.05 million tons; the rebar inventory was 268,000 tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons. Wire stocks in the Guangzhou market were 265,300 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons; rebar stocks were 712,100 tons, an increase of 40,800 tons. The stock of wire rod in Beijing market was 26.138 million tons, an increase of 20,300 tons; the rebar stock was 235,000,200 tons, an increase of 20,300 tons. Inventories of hot and cold rolled coils and plate in China continued to increase. Inventory of hot rolled coils in 40 major domestic markets and ports was 2.369 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons, an increase of 2.32%; cold rolled coil inventory was 1.278 million tons, an increase of 21,500 tons, an increase of 1.71%; plate The inventory was 1,276,400 tons, an increase of 17,100 tons, and an increase of 1.36%. Although the total inventory has not yet reached a great degree of pressure, the continuous rise of inventory will definitely have a negative effect on the market mentality, which is not conducive to the stability of the current market operation, and the market will easily enter the wait-and-see stage, and the rising trend of inventory will also Inevitable.
Based on the current market operation basis and judgments after the Spring Festival, it is generally believed that the market will rise in stages during the stable operation, which is a breakthrough in the upward price in the process of “destocking”. Construction steel currently receives a significant seasonal impact. After more than a month of price fluctuations, the current price level is relatively low. Whether it is compared with the production cost of steel mills or the price relationship between plates, There is not much room for steel to fall. Once the construction of the building is carried out normally after the Spring Festival, the endurance period of inventory pressure will be shortened. As the climate warms, demand will be released intensively, which will play a positive role in the “destocking” of steel. Conducive to the stability of market operation, or price increases. Due to the stability of market demand, the price fluctuations of sheet products are also mild. The emergence of price advantages also reflects the characteristics of seasonal impact. As the steel industry of automobiles, home appliances, machinery and other industries tends to stabilize, some of them appear. The industry is recovering cyclically, and the sheet metal market will play a supporting role in the stable operation of the steel market. Judging from the changes in stocks of varieties, it also reflects the changes in the demand for steel in different industries. According to the statistics of the Steel House website, the inventory of the five major steel products in the domestic steel market this week was 8.89 million tons, which is the lowest level in the three weeks before the Spring Festival in the past four years. Among them, the inventory of construction steel (rebar + wire) was 49.933 million tons, and the inventory of plate (medium plate + hot rolled coil + cold rolled coil) was 3.986 million tons, all of which were inventories in the three weeks before the Spring Festival in the past four years. * Low level of volume. Under the influence of seasonality, the stock of rebar products has risen rapidly recently, while the stock of industrial steel such as wire rods, hot rolled coils, and cold rolled coils has declined, which also reflects the impact of seasons on steel demand. Steel mills have changed their efforts to adjust product structure. In view of the above factors, although there are pressures and uncertainties in the current market operation, the market will not fluctuate significantly. It will be adjusted to a certain extent under the effect of the steel plant’s cost tolerance and effective market demand. Changes in inventory will have an impact on market mentality, which is also a key issue.
The price of rebar in Beijing market is still at a relatively low level. * It has been repeatedly fluctuating slightly around the platform of 3600 yuan / ton. The rebar in Shanghai market is still about 200 yuan / ton higher than that in Beijing. The rebar in Guangzhou market is still around. The price of the caliper can still be stable at a level of more than 3,900 yuan / ton. Although it is more than 300 yuan / ton than the Beijing market price, compared with the price at the high point in mid-to-late November, the price advantage is significantly reduced. It will also prevent steel mills from structurally adjusting the flow of resources in the market area. The pressure on northern resource inventory is still relatively large, and it will also affect market price fluctuations. From the perspective of the variety structure, the price of rebar is relatively low. In addition to being affected by seasonal factors, it is still affected by the inertia of previous production. However, the rebar price of 3600 yuan / ton has been at a recent low level, which will have a restraining effect on the adjustment of the steel plant’s production structure, which is conducive to market stability or the price bottom to rise. Under the influence of this price comparison relationship, once the market turns for the better, driven by construction steel, sheet products can be driven, and the market will stabilize or local market prices will rise.
Post time: Jan-12-2020