September-October is generally the traditional peak season for the steel market, but this year’s steel market is no longer in the peak season, and the relevant stock performance is not warm. The data showed that the black industrial chain futures index and the A-share Shenwan* steel index fell by 1.05% and 0.34% respectively.
According to industry insiders, the current signs indicate that the supply pressure in the steel market will continue, so it is still not optimistic about the trend in October. After entering November, under the premise that the price has fallen to a lower position, the actual demand of the terminal is superimposed on the demand of winter storage, and the steel market price trend is expected to strengthen.
The market is not warm
On the 8th, the black futures continued to be in a downturn. Wenhua Finance and Economics data showed that as of the close of the day, the black industry chain futures index fell 0.31%. Rebar futures contract 2001 contract fell 2.32% to 3404 yuan / ton; hot rolled futures 2001 contract closed at 3,416 yuan / ton, down 1.84%; stainless steel futures, the main contract 2002 fell 0.13% to 15,675 yuan / ton. Relatively speaking, iron ore futures performed strongly, with the main contract of 2001 closing at 657 yuan/ton, up 0.77%.
Recently, black futures have been showing signs of fatigue. The black industry chain futures index fell 1.05% in September, and the monthly line hit a three-day yin.
The A-share steel sector also performed poorly in the near term. According to Wind data, the Shenwan* steel index fell 0.34% in September, and the monthly line hit a six-day yin.
Xia Xuejun, a senior researcher at Southwest Futures, said that September is the peak season for steel demand and the peak season for supply. Since the beginning of this year, the supply pressure of the steel market has increased significantly compared with last year, and the steel inventory level in August has risen to a high level in the same period of history. Since September, steel stocks have been consumed, but the potential pressure on the supply side has not disappeared, which has become a core factor in suppressing steel prices. Against the background of the weak fluctuation of steel prices, the steel sector stocks showed a tepid trend. From a profit perspective, this year’s steel companies’ profits per ton of steel fell generally year-on-year, and there is the possibility of further compression in the later period.
Cao Youming, director of the Shanjin Futures Research Institute, said that the reason why steel prices were not warm in September was that the crude steel output increased significantly this year, and the increase in output had a restraining effect on prices. In addition, from the perspective of seasonality, market demand has often been reflected in the price before, until the peak season of consumption, the bullish factor has been cashed in advance, and the price is easy to adjust.
Supply pressure still exists
Xia Xueyu said that at present, the supply pressure in the steel market will continue, and the trend should not be optimistic unless the demand has risen sharply. Steel consumption is concentrated in real estate and infrastructure projects, but real estate investment continues to decline in the fourth quarter with a high probability. Although the infrastructure is expected to rebound, it is expected that it will be difficult to effectively boost the steel market.
Cao Youming said that it is unlikely that the steel market will reverse in October. First of all, environmental protection and production restrictions in the northern region are gradually lifted, and supply should be marginal, and there is still considerable pressure on prices. Second, the futures main contract price corresponds to the market situation in January, and the market often needs to reflect demand expectations in advance in October.
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, Xia Xueyu said that the profit per ton of steel may be further reduced in the fourth quarter. The steel sector stocks may lack good participation opportunities. Investors need selected stocks. The futures market has a short-selling mechanism. Investors can consider relying on key resistance levels. Short. When the market has a short period of bullish news and the disk is stimulated and rebounded, it may provide investors with an ideal opportunity to short the intervention.
Cao Youming believes that after entering November, the steel market price tends to fall to a lower position first. However, due to the actual demand of the terminal, the demand for the winter storage will be driven, and the subsequent price will be firmer. Therefore, the probability of the future price will be reduced first. In the transaction, you can lay out more than one futures midline in November. For related stocks, you can also consider bargain hunting.
Post time: Oct-09-2019