Lange predicts: Can the steel market rebound?

[Ship industry] From January to October, the total industrial output value of 80 key monitoring enterprises in the shipbuilding industry was 322.1 billion yuan, an increase of 6.2% year-on-year. In the 46th week of 2019 (2019.11.11-11.15), the comprehensive steel price index of Lange Steel reached 146.5 points. Last week, it rose by 0.94%, down 9.83% from the same period last year. Among them, LGMI long product price index was 160.5 points, up 1.43% from last week, down 12.69% compared with the same period of last year; LGMI profile price index was 152.2 points, down 0.06% from last week, down 9.60% from the same period of last year; LGMI sheet price The index was 132.8 points, up 0.72% from the previous week and down 7.09% from the same period of last year. The LGMI pipe price index was 155.0 points, up 0.48% from last week and down 8.78% from the same period last year.

According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform, the price changes of 17 types of 43 specifications (variety) of steel raw materials and steel products in some parts of China in the 46th week of 2019 are as follows: The market price of major steel products fluctuated and rose. Compared with the week, the number of rising varieties increased significantly, the number of flat varieties decreased significantly, and the number of falling varieties decreased slightly. Among them, 29 varieties rose, up 15 from last week; 7 were flat, down 12 from last week; 7 varieties fell, down 3 from last week. The domestic steel raw material market fluctuated and consolidated. The price of iron ore fell by 10-30 yuan, the price of coke remained stable, the price of scrap fell steadily by 20 yuan, and the price of billet rose by 60-70 yuan. At present, due to the phenomenon of catching up on some construction sites, the social stock of steel still remains. In the stage of rapid decline, the steel market is once again welcoming environmental storms. The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued the “Action Plan for the Comprehensive Management of Air Pollution in the Autumn and Winter of 2019-2020 in the Yangtze River Delta Region” and the Comprehensive Management of Air Pollution in the Autumn and Winter of 2019-2020 in the Plain of the Yangtze River. The tackling action plan prompted the futures market to rise rapidly. Some spot merchants began to seal up, and the crude steel output unexpectedly fell. It also made the steel market full of expectations for environmental protection and production, but the steel market will still face pressure from supply pressure. The dual pressure of gradual weakening of demand. On the whole, the steel market will continue to fluctuate and rise next week.

According to the calculation of the weekly price forecast model data of Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform, the domestic steel market price will fluctuate and rise in the next week (2019.11.18-11.22), the long product market price will rise steadily, the profile market price will rise slightly, and the plate market price will rise. As the shock rises, the pipe market price will rise steadily. The Lange Steel National Steel Composite Price Index is expected to fluctuate around 147.1 points. The average price of steel is around 4050 yuan, with an average fluctuation of 10-50 yuan. Among them, the long product price index is expected to fluctuate around 161.5 points, up 1.0 points; The index is expected to fluctuate around 152.4 points, up 0.2 points; the sheet price index is expected to fluctuate around 133.2 points, up 0.4 points; the pipe price index is expected to fluctuate around 155.3 points, up 0.3 points.


Post time: Nov-18-2019
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