It is unlikely that the winter reserve market will be fully triggered this year.

The domestic steel market has weakened this week, especially the futures market has become more turbulent. Diving and rebounds have been repeated, but the overall range has been relatively lower.

    At the beginning of the week, under the influence of various factors such as “good exhaustion + near-completed basis repair + poor macro data” and other factors, the market appeared a wave of diving. In the later period, as the news entered the “empty window period”, there were no special favorables or special negatives. As a result, the upward and downward driving forces were not sufficient. After the accelerated diving, it rebounded slightly, and then fell back after rushing up. The overall lack of firmness direction. However, with the substantial repair of the disk basis + the return of the basic surface to supply and demand, in fact, the pattern of weakening in the general direction has not been broken, but the short-term performance is more tangled to show people repeatedly.

    In the spot market, the price of long products has fallen sharply, and merchants are more willing to ship. The operation of price reduction to promote sales has dominated. The cumulative decline in some regions reached 100 yuan, but the terminal was mainly purchased on demand, without much stimulation. In some regions such as Beijing, the price is relatively low. Compared with the 01 contract that is close to delivery, it has shown a premium, which has certain attractiveness to the market, but there is still a certain gap from the overall trigger of speculative sentiment. Due to the small seasonal factors, the overall price is still relatively strong, with only a small decrease in HRC.

    As of December 20, 2019, Lange Steel’s comprehensive price index reached 147.3 points, a decrease of 0.99% from the same period last week and a decrease of 1.43% from the same period last month; Lange Steel’s long product price index reached 156.7 points, a decrease from the same period last week. 2.23%, down 5.61% from the same period last month; Lange’s steel plate price index reached 137.5 points, down 0.03% from the same period last week and up 1.16% from the same period last month.

    Construction steel

    In terms of specific spot prices, the monitoring data of the Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform show that as of December 20, the average price of Φ25mm three-level rebar in 10 major domestic cities was 3840 yuan, a decrease of 92 yuan from last weekend and a decrease of 239 from the same period last month. yuan. As of December 20, the average price of Φ6.5mm and HPB300 high-line in 10 major domestic cities was 4061 yuan, a decrease of 90 yuan from last weekend and a decrease of 284 yuan from the same period last month.

    According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel’s cloud business platform, as of December 20, the social steel stocks of construction steel in 29 key cities across the country reached 3.134 million tons, an increase of 63,300 tons over the weekend, a range of 2.06%, and a decrease of 0.15 over the same period last month. %, And 4.72% lower than the same period last year.

    Sheet

    In terms of hot-rolled coil prices, the monitoring data of Lange Steel’s cloud business platform shows that as of December 20, the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 3,841 yuan, which was 15 yuan lower than last weekend and last month. During the same period, it rose 112 yuan. In terms of inventory, as of December 20, the total inventory of hot rolled coils in 29 key cities in China reached 1.5126 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from last weekend, a range of 2.9%, a decrease of 14.36% from the same period last month, and a year-on-year decrease. Down 8.71%.

    Regarding the price of cold-rolled coil, as of December 20, the average price of 1.0mm cold-rolled coil in 10 key cities in China was 4,389 yuan, up 9 yuan from last weekend and 106 yuan from the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of December 20, the inventory of cold-rolled coils in 24 key cities in China was 979,000 tons, a decrease of 08,600 tons over the weekend, a range of 0.88%, a decrease of 4.26% over the same period last month, and a 12.9% increase over the same period last year. .

    In terms of plate prices, as of December 20, the price of 20mm plate in 10 key cities in China was 3790 yuan, up 2 yuan from last weekend and 50 yuan from the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of December 20, the total inventory of medium and heavy plate coils in 29 key cities in China reached 931,700 tons, a decrease of 22,400 tons over the weekend, a range of 2.35%, a decrease of 6.3% over the same period last month, and a year-on-year comparison. 6.77% higher.

    prediction

    Next week is the end of the year, and the Spring Festival this year is ahead of previous years. In fact, there is not much time left for the winter reserve! After the recent adjustments, what kind of market trends will show people, can the winter reserve market, which has attracted much attention from the market, start?

    The author believes that the possibility of comprehensive winter storage this year is not very great.

    First, the winter reserve policy is not attractive. Recently, steel mills have successively released winter storage policies. In addition to the fact that steel plants “when they rise, they fall, and fall when they fall,” the winter storage principle has attracted some attention, and most of them have a certain gap with the market’s psychological expectations.

    Second, there is still a gap in market prices. Last year’s 3800-4000 yuan winter reserve did not earn money. This year, the market psychological price is more inclined to about 3500-3700 yuan. Except for some speculative demand in Beijing, there is no obvious entry operation in most other regions. The motivation is not great.

    Thirdly, from the perspective of supply and demand, the output of steel mills has fallen to a certain extent under the influence of environmental protection and production restrictions at the end of the year, but it does not mean that it will not increase in the later stage. Profitability, short-flow steel mills have not reached the cost line, and it is unlikely that steel mills will actively reduce production. However, considering the advance of the New Year, the willingness of steel mills to increase production significantly will not be great, and steel output may not be as obvious as expected.

    From the demand side, the northern market has recently entered the winter break period, and the southern market demand has gradually weakened. If the output and market barriers in the later period change little, the pressure on supply and demand will be small, and the winter reserve market will be difficult. Full launch and trigger. Late base speed is the focus.

    Another thing is that from the perspective of the current basis, with the recent adjustments, the discount has been greatly repaired. Although there is still some room, it is not very large in general. With the close of the 01 contract delivery period, the futures market will not have much upside or downside without particularly large entanglements.

    Conversely, if the demand for winter storage is not fully triggered, it is difficult to make breakthroughs in the market because of seasonal market demand. At present, whether it is forward or backward, the market is more inclined to fluctuate in a narrow range. weak. But if the winter reserve market is not fully triggered, it is not a good thing. It is likely that the market next spring will not be as bad as expected.


Post time: Dec-23-2019
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