Experts say the city – November 4th

My steel: Last week, the domestic steel market price fluctuated. Judging from the current supply situation, the follow-up supply pressure has eased as the multi-market market gradually promulgated the heating season production policy document. At the same time, the gradual improvement of the demand side gave the market a certain mentality support, and the strong bearish sentiment in the early stage also improved. On the other hand, the current mainstream variety of social resources continues to decline, and the stock inventory pressure is gradually being released. Therefore, there is a certain rebound opportunity in the short term. However, the demand situation at this stage is not stable, and most of them are subject to speculative demand due to the influence of futures. Therefore, the attitude of most quality businesses is still cautious. On the whole, this week (2019.11.4-11.8) spot has some support, but the spot price will still be constrained by demand, and the price or shock will be strong.

Steel House: Last week, the domestic steel market price fell slightly. From the recent market, the domestic steel market has continued to decline, and the decline has increased, especially for construction steel, reflecting the current market demand is still OK, but the market renewal is not good, as the market is approaching the off-season, the weakening of demand will continue to strengthen; In terms of supply, the current operating rate of blast furnaces in steel mills is generally at a high level, and the supply of resources will not be significantly reduced in the near future. The downward adjustment of steel mill prices will have a certain impact on market sentiment. This week, individual steel mills have security incidents, which are strengthening the short-term security inspections, but have a limited boost to the market. It is expected that the domestic steel market price will continue to be weak and volatile this week (2019.11.4-11.8). Focus on recent safety inspections, inventory changes, and environmentally-friendly production limits.

Lange: At present, the traditional demand season has passed, downstream procurement has begun to slow down, the steel market will gradually enter the off-season, and spot merchants are more pessimistic about the market outlook. Although the haze weather has led to emergency production restrictions in some areas in the north, the effect of limiting production may not be as expected, and the supply pressure may gradually increase in the later period. At the same time, the pressure on the upcoming Beibei South market will double, and the northern market will There will be pressure to reduce demand, and the southern market will face greater supply pressure. Moreover, the Fed’s interest rate cuts have also caused the futures market to rise, which has made the market confidence calm. On the whole, the steel market will show a small shock this week.

According to the calculation of the weekly price forecast model data of Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform, the domestic steel market price will fluctuate and consolidate this week (2019.11.4-11.8), the long product market price will rise slightly, the profile market price will be slightly consolidated, and the plate market price will stabilize. In the small and medium-sized, the pipe market price will stabilize and weaken.

Tang and Song Dynasties: This week’s forecast will show a wide range of severe smog weather. In addition, the 5th “Entering Expo” will be held. Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places have issued pollution warnings, and most of them are in the stage of environmental protection and production restriction. During the period, the production limit of steel production and the actual production limit will continue to increase, and the supply of market resources will continue to decrease. At the same time, the current electric furnace steel enterprises are in a state of loss, the output is still difficult to improve, and the consumption of converter scrap is stable or low. Market resource supply is “steadily decreasing”. Although large-scale pollution warnings were implemented during the period, some projects were under construction or affected, but there was no obvious cooling, rain and snow weather, and the construction of infrastructure projects was still in a favorable period; end users such as manufacturing industries maintained stable demand, and market prices were staged. The low position rose, the traders’ low-priced purchase operations increased or the transaction performance was either active, and the market demand continued to perform steadily. The reduction of supply side, the demand side is stable, and the lack of specifications of building materials in some areas such as East China continues to show up, and steel inventories will continue to decrease slightly during the week. Although the market sentiment and confidence have been slightly boosted, the spot is basically good, but the recent announcement that the steel economic data is weak, the conditions of high supply and the low demand winter are approaching, the market will be cautiously wait and see, and the optimistic expectations will continue to be suppressed. Spot market conditions. 01 During the contract period, the price of snails may continue to fluctuate and adjust, and the price of spot steel has a slight rebound; the price of ore has narrowed sharply, the price of scrap has stopped falling, the cost of steel enterprises has decreased slightly, and the profit of steel has increased slightly, and its support for steel prices is slightly stronger. This week (2019.11.4-11.8) period spot market or current shocks dominated the trend.

Han Weidong, deputy general manager of Youfa Group: Sino-US trade negotiations are progressing smoothly, and it is very likely that a phase agreement will be reached this month. The Fed cut interest rates for the third time, in line with market expectations. The country announced that the PMI data has fallen back, and the reaction to manufacturing is under great pressure. At present, the environmental protection and production limit in autumn and winter is unfolding, the intensity is moderate, the demand is strengthened in a short time, and the state of rushing work is staged. The price of steel is in a state of paralysis, and it does not want to rise. For the time being, due to inventory and short-term demand, it cannot fall rapidly. The short-term good and expected difference is the current real situation. The current *good method is to reasonably low inventory, fast forward and fast sales, seize the market’s tail, and strive to achieve good results in November! It’s going to be winter this week, it’s time to plan next year!

Post time: Nov-04-2019
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