My steel: The domestic steel market prices weakened last week. In the short term, the overall market supply-demand contradiction has not reached a sharp situation. Although the market mentality is in a bearish state, it is not too pessimistic. Therefore, the short-term market decline is relatively low. Secondly, there is a certain need for replenishment in the terminal market near the end of the year. However, as the current spot price is still slowly weakening, we have to wait and see in terms of procurement and stocking. In summary, the subsequent spot costs and demand are in a declining state, and the support for price rebound is insufficient. It will maintain a trend of weakening operation in the short term.
Steel House: Last week, the domestic steel market had different trends. Among them, the price of construction steel continued to fall, and has basically fallen to the level before the start of the current round of market. There is still limited room for decline, and the flat plate market is generally strong. In the later period, the domestic steel market focused on three aspects: First, winter storage. Winter storage of construction steel is about to start. At present, prices are not attractive to merchants, but steel mills have made better profits this year. Some steel mills already have their own winter storage plans. Second, steel production. At present, long-process enterprises are generally profitable, and production will not decline. Electric furnace steel mills plan to suspend production around the Spring Festival, and the supply of construction steel will decrease. Third, the product structure. As the price of construction steel continues to fall, the prices of hot-rolled coils in some markets have already been higher than the prices of rebar, and steel mills of all varieties tend to produce flats. It is expected that the domestic steel market price will gradually stop falling and stabilize in January.
Lange: At present, the steel market has entered a traditional off-season. Downstream demand purchases are rapidly shrinking. The spot market shipments have slowed significantly. The problem of winter storage has surfaced again. Due to the recent rapid decline in market prices, a small number of merchants have begun winter storage operations. , But most businesses are still watching. Moreover, because the investment in infrastructure construction has grown less than expected, especially the slight decline in railway investment, it has once again raised concerns about the market next spring, which has not yet started large-scale winter storage operations, and market merchants still lack confidence in the outlook. . Taken together, this week’s steel market will show a trend of shock consolidation.
According to Lange Steel’s cloud price platform weekly price prediction model data, this week (2019.12.30-1.3), the domestic steel market price will fluctuate and consolidate, the long product market price will fluctuate and become stronger, the profile market price will decline steadily, and the plate market The price will decline steadily, and the market price of pipe will fluctuate and weaken.
Tang and Song: This week is the New Year’s Eve and enters the second or ninth period. Many parts of the country may welcome the cold weather since winter. The southern market demand or performance has decreased significantly, and the period of real nationwide seasonal demand has obviously weakened. At present, most long-flow steel companies are profitable, and the inland areas have a slight loss. The long-flow steel companies will gradually weaken their production increase momentum. Electric furnace steel in many places will lose money, increase the power to reduce production, and the capacity utilization rate may decrease slightly. The efficiency of coiling is significantly higher than that of thread. The driving force for increasing the output of sheet metal continues to increase, and the output of strips continues to increase, but the output of rebar can hardly be significantly reduced, or it remains basically stable, and the overall resource supply continues to maintain a high level. Although the demand for plate-type terminals and the demand for local construction steel have some resilience, they are only short-lived and cannot become the main support point for market prices. Beicai’s southbound resources continued to increase, and the port’s arrival of resources increased. In East China, South and other high-priced areas of building materials, the supply oversupply conflict gradually increased. Social steel inventories may rise significantly, among which the rebar stocks increase significantly faster, plate stocks may change from stable to rising, pressure on building materials inventory in some areas has appeared; there is no obvious supply and demand contradiction in the coil market. Although the current prices of rebar in low-priced areas such as North China are close to their lows this year, the risk of high building material prices in high-priced areas such as East China and South China has been released to a certain extent; prices of coil products have fallen; 05 futures prices have been strong; steel costs support Steel stocks are generally not high; steel companies ’output increase has weakened, and output may have fallen at a high level, but these factors are difficult to meet the rapid decline in demand, the rapid deterioration of the spot fundamentals, and the spot steel market in the next period is generally weakly adjusted. Spiral and board varieties may be weak at the same time; 05 futures may be weak. The overall spot market will enter the “winter reserve” leading market stage, and the price will gradually reach the expected price recognized by the trader. When the market or obviously starts the operation of locking the “winter reserve”, the weak decline or the market basically ends.
Han Weidong, deputy general manager of Youfa Group: Say goodbye to 2019 this week, and welcome to 2020. Happy New Year to all friends! The market will enter the winter, and it is not the supply and demand that determines the direction of market fluctuations, but the “idea” and mentality. At present, many people have a good mentality, but the market’s final trend, especially next year, is not necessarily related to the mentality. It is necessary to maintain a stable, peaceful and alert situation at all times! We are neither pessimistic nor optimistic about the future market, so if the price is low, we need not be afraid, and if the price is higher, we need not be greedy! Judging from the demand in December, this year is the difference between last year and last year. The growth rate is twice that of November. The price is more than 100 yuan higher than the same period last year. The output is more than 6% higher than the same month last year. Rest assured. Of course, we are also worried that this weakness will continue from January to March, unlike the first quarter of 2019, which saw a 45% increase in sales over last year. So in the current market state, stability is our best choice!
Post time: Dec-30-2019