My steel: The domestic steel market price fluctuated last week. There has been a certain increase in quotations in the previous market driven by mainstream varieties. However, to the current situation, the centralized demand release phase is gradually easing. Therefore, the decline of the overall social treasury resources does not rule out the possibility of further narrowing in the future. In addition, from a time point of view, after December, Beicai Resources will accelerate the speed of going south, and to a certain extent, the situation of less resource in East China and southern China will be improved, which will inhibit the subsequent price rebound. Therefore, it is comprehensively estimated that the domestic steel market price may fluctuate weakly this week (2019.12.2-12.6).
Home of Steel: The domestic steel market price fluctuated at a high level last week, among which the high price of construction steel pulled back. The main reasons are that prices have risen sharply in the early period, and merchants are cautious about the market outlook. Judging from the recent market situation, the possibility of price fluctuations in the domestic steel market is relatively large, mainly based on the following reasons: the supply and demand of construction steel will tend to ease, and the pressure on plate supply will be greater. High profit stimulates high production. The blast furnace operating rate calculated by the Steel House website has continued to fluctuate at about 87%. The electric furnace operating rate has continued to rise since November. Electric furnace plants are mainly based on construction steel. Domestic production will remain high. From the perspective of demand, The current market has entered winter and the impact of weakening seasonal demand will appear. Stabilizing investment and supplementing shortcomings is still the main factor to boost the current market. Recently, a number of policies have been implemented. In 2020, new special bonds will be issued to 1 trillion yuan in advance. %. The special debt superimposes the project capital, and the two-pronged approach will help infrastructure projects solve the financial dilemma. The growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize and rebound. Recently, we have focused on the dynamics of changes in market inventory, electric furnace steel production, north material southward, and winter storage policies.
Lange: At present, the tide of rushing work continues in various places, but the procurement intensity has begun to weaken, the market fears that the mood is high, and steel prices have fallen. However, due to the “warm winter” weather, steel mills have frequently restricted their environmental protection and their steel output has been suppressed. At the same time, the State Council recently issued the “Notice on Strengthening the Capital Management of Investment Projects in Fixed Assets”, which proposes a series of policies and measures on appropriately reducing the proportion of project capital and strengthening the capital management of investment projects. The Ministry of Finance also issued some 1 trillion yuan of special debt limit in advance in 2020, these policies have strengthened market confidence. However, the winter steel market will still face increasing supply pressure, and high-level risks still exist. Taken together, this week’s steel market will continue to fluctuate.
According to the Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform weekly price prediction model data, this week (2019.12.2-12.6) the domestic steel market price will fluctuate and rise, the long product market price will rise slightly, the profile market price will rise slightly, and the plate market price will fluctuate. Rising, pipe market prices will fluctuate and decline.
Tang and Song: Short-term severe haze weather occurred in Hebei and other regions at the beginning of this week. Early warning of air pollution was implemented in some areas. The impact on steel production was temporarily limited. There was no obvious weather pollution process in the later part of the week. Most steel enterprises maintained normal production and the blast furnace operation rate continued. Steady in the small rise. In particular, the profits of long-flow steel companies continued to be 300-600 yuan / ton, and the profits of electric furnace steel companies were 100-200 yuan / ton. The unit consumption may remain stable and increase; the utilization rate of electric furnace capacity may still increase slightly, and the market resource supply will continue to increase steadily, especially in eastern and southern regions. The weekend is approaching the “heavy snow” solar term, and snowfall occurred in most of the northern part in the early part of the week. The construction of most projects is at the end of the shutdown phase. The demand for construction steel may weaken rapidly, and market transactions may shrink significantly. Some areas in the south enter winter, and there are many in eastern and southern areas. In the cold weather, the peak construction period has passed, and gradually entering the end of construction, the demand for rebar must be reduced, especially the demand for building materials in some areas is now significantly weakened. The resources of the north and south of the material have gradually increased. The lack of specifications has gradually eased, the construction material resources in East and South regions are tight, and the contradiction of lack of specifications has been further improved, and the contradiction between supply and demand has gradually eased. During the week, the social steel stock may decrease slightly, but the stock decline continues to slow down, or it is approaching the inflection point where the stock turns from falling to rising. With the weakening of demand, expectations are gradually becoming a reality. Under higher steel profits, the risk of falling high prices increases, the market is fearful, and the cautious mood is obviously strengthened. Traders or operations are more cautious. At the same time, the ultra-high spot price and the futures market have shown shocks and adjustments. Although the spot market has short-term low inventory and strong demand toughness, it supports the better market fundamentals, but it is difficult to meet the reality of high supply conditions and low demand. With the advent of steel prices, spot steel prices and raw fuel prices may be volatile and adjusted. The cost of steel companies rose steadily, the profit of steel products narrowed slightly, and its effect on supporting steel prices and suppressing the price of raw fuels was not obvious.
Han Weidong, deputy general manager of Youfa Group: Beijing has had a snowfall, and it just announced that the manufacturing PMI index has returned to more than 50, which has added confidence to the stability of the economy. The noisy market is returning to calm and moving towards low season and winter storage. The settlement price of Ruifeng Strip in November was 3,600 yuan / ton, only 10 yuan higher than that in October. Many people hope that a short-term opportunity in the rebound of only 10 yuan is actually impossible. Our group on October 21 During the seminar, it is expected to rebound, but the time is not long and the height is limited. Afterwards, it is decided to give up. In a complex market, there is something to do and not to do, so that it will stabilize in the severe market fluctuations. , Walk long. Judging from our research and several institutions, the current steel price can be set to a high point no matter from this year or next year’s price! The state of economic upsurge next year is to stabilize, not rebound. And next year’s output, as long as the production limit is released, it will skyrocket and return to excess. What I am enjoying now is the sharp restriction on production since September and the mismatch of the peak season in November. Next, we will gradually enter the winter storage mode. It is still a long time. Let us take advantage of the situation and respond positively. December is only a low season, but it is a full month after the Spring Festival * and the next full month is next spring. Come to a happy ending!
Post time: Dec-02-2019