Experts Say City-December 16

My Steel: Last week, the domestic steel market price remained volatile. At this stage, the overall supply-side situation remains stable, but due to the lack of early market arrivals and the demand for mainstream products, the growth rate of inventory is still within the expected range, so there is little pressure on the spot resources of mainstream products in the short term. In terms of the demand of the follow-up market, the northern region is now gradually coming to an end, while the southern region of the country is subject to the current high resource prices, so it is cautious to purchase. Except for the continued release of some rigid demand, most procurements have a wait-and-see situation. In summary, the domestic steel market price is expected to weaken this week (2019.12.16-12.20).

Home of Steel: On December 10-12, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing. The conference continued to emphasize that housing and housing are not speculated. The judgment of the financial situation is generally healthy and capable of resolving various risks. It can be seen that China ’s currency The policy still has a certain operating space, which is conducive to the solution of the capital shortage projects and the downstream industry demand. Last week, the domestic steel market price trend was differentiated, and continued to show a pattern of weak plate strength, weak south, and stable north. The price difference between construction steel and plate, and the price difference between the southern market and the northern market continued to be repaired. From the recent market perspective, the impact of the off-season of consumption on the market has gradually increased, but the winter storage in the northern market will gradually start, and the replenishment of inventory demand will make up for the impact of the decline in actual demand; the stock of the plate market continues to decline, reflecting that the current demand is generally good; Hebei , Shanxi, Anyang, and other regions have launched a response to severely polluted weather, which has boosted the market to a certain extent. It is expected that this week (2019.12.16-12.20) the domestic steel market will continue to show a trend of shock adjustment.

Lange: At present, the intensity of procurement in the northern market has weakened significantly, the procurement in the southern market has gradually calmed down, and spot merchant shipments have slowed significantly. Although the good news of Jingang City continues, first reduce the capital of some projects, and then issue new special debt quotas in advance to promote investment policies, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the future can be expected. However, demand is coming in the off-season. As steel prices are still high and merchants are less enthusiastic about winter storage, the steel market is still under pressure. At the same time, due to the impact of warm winter fog and haze, environmental protection frequently limits production, and the market has a strong willingness to survive. Taken together, this week’s steel market will show a volatile trend.

According to Lange Steel’s cloud price platform weekly price prediction model data, this week (2019.12.16-12.20) the domestic steel market price will fluctuate and consolidate, the long product market price will fluctuate and fall, the profile market price will decline slightly, and the plate market price will fluctuate. Rising, pipe market prices will decline steadily.

Tang and Song: This week there will be severe haze in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Yangtze River Delta regions. Hebei, Henan, and Jiangsu will implement long-term atmospheric pollution warnings, which will have a greater impact on the production of processes such as focusing and sintering. Although the operating rate has been reduced, the impact on ironmaking, steelmaking processes and main rolling lines may be insignificant, and the impact on the supply of steel resources is limited. The profit of long-flow steel enterprises continued to be 200-400 yuan / ton, and the profits of electric furnace steel enterprises were around 100 yuan / ton. The profits of coiled products increased, and the power for increasing production of long-flow steel enterprises continued to exist, and the unit consumption of scrap steel may continue to be stable; Electric furnace capacity utilization rate is stable, and market resource supply continues to remain stable. Although the efficiency of northern coils is higher than that of threads, and the incentive to increase production of building materials has weakened, electric furnace rebar products in eastern and southern regions still have higher profits, so rebar output has increased. Motivation and conditions continue. There will be rain and snow weather in many parts of North China during the week, and at the same time, it will enter the “winter solstice”, approaching the “Several Nine” solar term, the construction stoppage of most northern projects will end, the demand for construction steel will continue to weaken and gradually reach low levels, and market transactions will continue to shrink; Building construction in some areas has gradually entered the end of construction, and the demand for rebar continues to weaken, but the demand for building materials in some areas has remained resilient or sustained; the resources of North Materials southward and the port’s arrival of resources have continued to increase, and the oversupply of building materials markets in East and South regions continues to show . The turning point of the social steel stock may turn from falling to rising, and the rising period of steel stocks will be started. Among them, the rebar stocks will increase at a faster rate, and the plate stocks will slow down. However, there is no obvious contradiction between supply and demand in the market as a whole, and the overall inventory level is lower than the same period last year. With the adjustment of steel prices in the early stage, especially the prices of building materials in key regions have fallen sharply, the risk of high prices has been moderately released, and the fear of heightening in the building materials market has eased; the prices of coil products have continued to rise, and the coil-spin difference has been significantly repaired. At the same time, the futures market may peak at the same time, and the good spot fundamental support gradually fades. In addition, the weak demand that has come will dominate the market trend in the later stage. The overall spot steel market continued to show weak adjustments. However, due to the different demand for seasonal snails and coils, the spot market’s “snails are weak and strong” market continues to exist. As market transactions continued to shrink, prices weakened, and the steel company’s agreement on ordering policies in January and February was introduced, the market began to “winter storage” operations. The price of raw fuels may fluctuate and fluctuate, and steel profits will continue to narrow.

Han Weidong, deputy general manager of Youfa Group: Sino-US trade reached a * phase agreement, which can be played down in the future. The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out the direction for next year, and still stable! * Nearly frequently, major professional websites forecast the demand for steel next year, the metallurgical planning institute and the Steel House are forecast to decrease, and the Steel Association, Tang and Song, My Iron and Steel, and Lange Steel Network forecast that the steel demand will increase by 10-30 million tons … … Whoever is right, the era of increasing steel demand by 50 million tons for three consecutive years is over. The agencies have a little consensus that the average price next year is lower than this year. The consensus on demand is that infrastructure is strengthened, while real estate is weak. For the enterprise, the days have to pass day by day and January to month. What is currently to be done is the arrangement for this year’s closing and winter storage, and then the plan for next year. * The market has improved in the recent period, which makes people very optimistic. It seems to make people forget the way they have traveled this year. In fact, calm down, have a cup of tea, and review the monthly market this year, and rationality will slowly recover. Watch patiently for changes in the market!

Post time: Dec-16-2019
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